student
VAK Russia 5.2.1
VAK Russia 5.2.4
VAK Russia 5.2.5
VAK Russia 5.2.6
VAK Russia 5.2.7
UDC 33
CSCSTI 06.00
Russian Classification of Professions by Education 38.00.00
Russian Library and Bibliographic Classification 650
Russian Trade and Bibliographic Classification 77
BISAC BUS BUSINESS & ECONOMICS
This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the economic efficiency of geographical diversification of Russian oil exports under unprecedented sanctions pressure. Using a comparative netback analysis of two key pipeline routes — the Eastern Siberia–Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline system and the Druzhba pipeline — the study examines the structure and dynamics of logistics costs, price-differential formation mechanisms, and the ultimate revenue performance of each route. The research establishes that reorientation of export flows toward Asian markets has materially increased unit transportation costs: the Transneft ESPO tariff reached RUB 3,896.51/ton as of January 1, 2026 (+5.1% vs. 2025), while total logistics costs for the Asian route amount to USD 9.3/bbl versus USD 2.9/bbl for the Druzhba route. Despite higher transportation expenses, netback analysis demonstrates superior efficiency of the Asian direction owing to the substantially narrower discount of ESPO Blend to Brent (USD 2.5/bbl in 2024) compared with Urals (USD 13.5/bbl). The widening of the Urals-Brent discount to a record USD 25.8/bbl in December 2025 — driven by new U.S. sanctions on leading Russian oil companies — negates the economic advantage of Druzhba's lower pipeline tariffs. The netback calculations confirm ESPO's strategic superiority: ESPO netback reached USD 67.5/bbl versus USD 62.9/bbl for Druzhba in 2024, generating aggregate annual revenue of USD 31.2 billion.
oil exports, geographical diversification, ESPO, Druzhba, logistics costs, price discount, netback, sanctions, Urals, ESPO Blend
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