The paper suggests some approaches to the solution of the problem of elaboration of regional energy systems’ environmental regulation. It shows that implication of clean energy standards or renewable portfolio standards leads to some ecology, economic and social consequences that can be evaluated properly only in the long term. The optimization of the technology structure regional energy system can be done on the base of Environmental Data Envelopment Analysis — the research technique which is following the concept of weak disposability of undesirable output (CO2 emissions). The analysis of the possibilities of the model extinction (by including different electricity generation technologies and other types of negative effects except CO2 emissions into account) is completed.
energy system, energy effectiveness, renewable energy, modelling, operational research
Согласно различным прогнозам как мировых аналитических агентств, так и крупнейших энергетических компаний (например, BP Energy Outlook 2030) потребление и производство электроэнергии в мире в ближайшие десятилетия будет возрастать (рис. 1), что связано с ростом населения планеты и нарастающим процессом индустриализации в развивающихся странах. К 2030 г. ожидается 50%-й рост производства и потребления электроэнергии относительно уровня 2011 г. (примерно по 2,1% ежегодно).
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