Moscow, Moscow, Russian Federation
VAK Russia 5.2.1
VAK Russia 5.2.4
VAK Russia 5.2.5
VAK Russia 5.2.6
VAK Russia 5.2.7
UDC 338
CSCSTI 06.00
CSCSTI 06.52
CSCSTI 06.75
CSCSTI 06.91
Russian Classification of Professions by Education 38.00.00
Russian Classification of Professions by Education 38.03.01
Russian Classification of Professions by Education 38.04.02
Russian Library and Bibliographic Classification 654
The sanctions pressure on the Russian fuel and energy sector after 2022 led to a structural restructuring of exports, increased logistical costs and the loss of foreign assets. The purpose of the work is to quantify the impact of sanctions on the economic security of the energy sector based on a system of threshold indicators and to analyze adaptation measures using the example of PJSC LUKOIL. The standard-weight method of calculating the integral energy security index and the analysis of the dynamics of five key indicators (fiscal, technological, export-price, export concentration, financial and corporate) for 2021-2025 were used. Information base – LUKOIL's IFRS financial statements, data from the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Energy, and the Bank of Russia. Results. The share of oil and gas budget revenues decreased to 23% (pre–crisis zone), the discount of Urals to Brent reached $ 14/bbl (crisis zone, I=0.36), export concentration in China and India - 81% (pre-crisis zone, I=0.74). The weighted integral energy security index was 0.685 (the norm is 1.0), which corresponds to the pre-crisis state of the system. PJSC LUKOIL's net loss for 2025 was 1.06 trillion rubles (mainly due to the write-off of foreign assets by 1.7 trillion rubles), while the EBITDA margin remained at 24.1%. The energy sector demonstrates limited sustainability: physical production volumes have been preserved, but profitability and investment potential have decreased. The key threat is the price discount. Measures have been proposed to reduce it (development of its own fleet, long-term Asian contracts), achieve equipment localization of 85% by 2030 and de-dollarization of settlements to 80% by 2027.
institutional framework, carbon regulation, CBAM, EU ETS, carbon pricing, Russia, economic consequences
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