Moscow, Moscow, Russian Federation
VAK Russia 5.2.1
VAK Russia 5.2.3
VAK Russia 5.2.4
VAK Russia 5.2.5
VAK Russia 5.2.6
VAK Russia 5.2.7
UDC 33
CSCSTI 06.00
CSCSTI 00.00
Russian Classification of Professions by Education 05.00.00
Russian Classification of Professions by Education 38.00.00
Russian Library and Bibliographic Classification 2
Russian Trade and Bibliographic Classification 8
BISAC BUS BUSINESS & ECONOMICS
The purpose of the study is to systematize and critically analyze the institutional foundations of carbon regulation at the global and European levels, as well as to identify the economic consequences of the introduction of the Carbon Boundary Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) for the Russian Federation and identify areas for adaptation of the national climate strategy. The paper uses methods of theoretical analysis and synthesis, comparative legal method, institutional analysis and macroeconomic analysis. It has been established that the theoretical basis of climate policy is the work of U. Nordhaus (2018), who justified the need to internalize externalities through carbon pricing. In modern practice, two main instruments have emerged: the carbon tax and the cap-and-trade system, the choice between which is a compromise between price certainty and emissions certainty. The European Union has been implementing the EU ETS since 2005, and the permanent CBAM regime since 2026, covering six categories of goods (iron and steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizers, hydrogen, electricity). It is planned to expand by about 180 additional products starting in 2028. For Russia, as a major exporter of energy–intensive products (ferrous metallurgy – 5-6 million tons/year, aluminum – 0.8 million tons/year, fertilizers - 4-5 million tons/year), CBAM creates direct economic risks. The additional tax burden on Russian exports to the EU could range from 1.5 to 6 billion euros annually by 2030. The key factors of uncertainty are: the trajectory of EU ETS prices, the expansion of the list of goods, the abolition of free quotas and the possibility of mutual recognition of carbon regulation systems. CBAM is becoming a driver of institutional reforms in Russian climate policy. It is critically important to create a national emissions verification system that is methodologically compatible with the requirements of the EU ETS and CBAM, as well as the introduction of internal carbon pricing to accumulate funds within the country. Without forming its own carbon pricing and verification system, Russia risks not only losing part of its export markets, but also missing the opportunity to finance the green transition.
institutional framework, carbon regulation, CBAM, EU ETS, carbon pricing, Russia, economic consequences
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